Place Your Bets - Pascal's Wager

"According to the doctrine of chance, you ought to put yourself to the trouble of searching for the truth."
- Blaise Pascal, 'Pensees'

I've been reading Pascal's The Provincial Letters and Pensees. Pascal was a 17th Century scientist who became interested in chance and the theory of probability. Before we look at one of his most famous arguments, I must say that Pascal is sometimes humorous. This is from The Provincial Letters and was written to him by a friend:

"[Your letters] are not only in high repute among theologians - they have proved agreeable to the men of the world, and intelligible even to the ladies."

Hysterical. I'll take it as a compliment. Pascal's Wager is probably his most well-known piece of work, and it has occupied minds ever since he put out his challenge. It starts by looking at how we are finite beings and yet we know the concept of there being infinity:

"Our soul is cast into a body, where it finds number, time, dimension. Thereupon it reasons, and calls this nature necessity, and can believe nothing else. Unity joined to infinity adds nothing to it, no more than one foot to an infinite measure. The finite is annihilated in the presence of the infinite, and becomes a pure nothing. So our spirit before God, so our justice before divine justice."

Pascal is saying here that we view our lives from a limited perspective. If we compare our own limitations to the infinite which is unlimited, our limitations are so small and inconsequential as to be like nothing. We know there is an infinite, but we are "ignorant of its nature". He says, "We may well know there is a God without knowing what He is".

Pascal poses the question:

"God is, or He is not. But to which side shall we incline? Reason can decide nothing here. A game is being played at the extremity of this infinite distance where heads or tails will turn up. What will you wager? According to reason, you can do neither the one thing nor the other; according to reason, you can defend neither of the propositions."

God is infinite, and trying to prove whether God is or isn't, or what or who God is, lies beyond the limits of science and reason. One has to wager and so choose one position or the other. In response to those who would say that they simply won't wager at all, Pascal's response is that they are already choosing. Not choosing is choosing - not choosing is saying God isn't. But it cannot be proved that God isn't. On what basis then can we choose? He recommends that we weigh the gain and loss in wagering that God is. If God is, then we are wagering on life itself. As Pascal puts it we are wagering on "an infinitely happy life to gain".

An infinitely happy life is not a life without difficulties here in our finite existence. An infinitely happy life is one that has a fresh start, is connected to God, and has the promise of infinite existence after death. As Pascal says:

"Now what harm will befall you in taking this side? You will be faithful, honest, humble, grateful, generous, a sincere friend, truthful. Certainly you will not have those poisonous pleasures, glory and luxury; but will you not have others?"

God is or he isn't. How would you wager?


See Part 2:Pascal's Wager - A Different Kind of Cost Analysis.